Blu-Ray - about to die....... - in 12-15 months -

[Nigel]

Moore's law isn't going to hold forever. They have already been fudging it by applying mulit-cores.

Bandwidth is the next frontier.

Ten years ago I met Roger on a board using a 28k modem.

Who is using one of those on a daily basis??

When I hooked my lime green 467 Firewire iBook into the NYU T1 line for the first time in 2000 I was blown away.

I avoided high speed for years.

"Who needs high speed to move email?? Who needs bandwidth??"

My friends will remember me saying in 1999 that only the US Navy needs speeds like a T1 line.

Now those speeds are in our houses.

So. Yes. A billboard will be done via the cloud. Not today but in five years.

Y'All need to stop thinking about the world in Today's terms and start thinking about it in Tomorrow's.

Good Luck

[Jim Carlile]

Who wants to keep hundreds of movies or songs in a hard drive or other kind of dynamic storage? How can you tell anything apart, or what you don't want any more?

Fixed media works. It has for hundreds of years. There's a place for both. I think people also need to have that tactile thing in their hands-- fixed media has cover art and a tangible nature that places it in a context. To me there's something vaporous about hard drive storage-- makes everything look the same.

[Angus]

Who wants to keep hundreds of movies or songs in a hard drive or other kind of dynamic storage?

Apparently Nigel. And Microsoft. Or at least Microsoft want us to. Or want Nigel to. I dunno. Call the cops.

I think people also need to have that tactile thing in their hands-- fixed media has cover art and a tangible nature that places it in a context. To me there's something vaporous about hard drive storage-- makes everything look the same.

Precicely what I said last week.


Plus, as soon as they have us depending on downloads for our entertainment...they've got us by the balls. They can easily limit how many times we watch what we have paid for, or for how long a period we may view it. "Sorry, that program is only available for 140 days. To view again you will be billed another $9.99, Y/N?"

[MovieStuff]

.....
Once iTunes allows you to encode your movies then the nail will seal the coffin for disks in the USA.

Well, you could start encoding your HD movie now and it might be ready to watch on your iTunes player by Christmas. ;)

I've got a shoot later this year in Texas. If I'm clse enough to you we are going to finally meet up drink some beer and hopefully talk about anything other than film/media.

How about politics and religion??

Good Luck

Cool! I'm about an hour or so outside of San Antonio in the hill country. We have a guest house overlooking the Sabinal River. You're welcome to come stay for the night.

Roger

[etimh]

Plus, as soon as they have us depending on downloads for our entertainment...they've got us by the balls.

Word.

"Tommorrow's terms" suck.

Tim

[MovieStuff]

Who wants to keep hundreds of movies or songs in a hard drive or other kind of dynamic storage? How can you tell anything apart, or what you don't want any more?

Fixed media works. It has for hundreds of years. There's a place for both. I think people also need to have that tactile thing in their hands-- fixed media has cover art and a tangible nature that places it in a context. To me there's something vaporous about hard drive storage-- makes everything look the same.

Amen to that, brother. I think one of the things driving a niche resurgence in vinyl is the ability to have covers with art/graphics that you don't need a fucking magnifying glass to enjoy. I'm not unrealistic: when I only pay 99 cents for an I-tunes song, I accept it for the transient characteristic the price implies. But when I pay $15+ for something, I want that "something" in my hand. Also, call me cynical, but you just know that if they force the issue by dropping disks and require downloading, their distribution cost will go down but the price of the product will not in proportion, so we get double screwed. Like Angus said, then they have you by the balls and can charge just for access to a product you've already paid for several times over.

Roger

[mattias]

But most people use software on a single computer and they use the same software time after time after time.

same with videogames. why are you guys so hung up on movies based on a discussion from the gaming industry? :-)

/matt

[kentek]

I just got a new 1080p 42" Aquos because my tube Sony died. It is great new technology! That said, I watch almost everything in 720i (or p). The only thing in HD 16:9 format is the commercials. I'm not even going to buy the Dish digital as within a year most of the broadcasters will be HD. And, fiber will be in my neighborhood in 12-18 months.

I will buy a new DVD player as the old one is totally confused as to where to make the audio loud. The background is always louder than the voice.

I personally think that the technology infrastructure will get one more big change in the next 3-5 years. But, I just don't know what it will be.

Everything I buy now must have an upgrade path. That includes the new LCD and future hi-end receiver.

Addons like Blue-Ray are dropping in price so one can afford to get one even if it is only a valid technology for 5 years.

You can only stay state-of-the-art for about 20 minutes.

[super8man]

Who wants to keep hundreds of movies or songs in a hard drive or other kind of dynamic storage? How can you tell anything apart, or what you don't want any more?

Fixed media works. It has for hundreds of years. There's a place for both. I think people also need to have that tactile thing in their hands-- fixed media has cover art and a tangible nature that places it in a context. To me there's something vaporous about hard drive storage-- makes everything look the same.

Amen to that, brother. I think one of the things driving a niche resurgence in vinyl is the ability to have covers with art/graphics that you don't need a fucking magnifying glass to enjoy. I'm not unrealistic: when I only pay 99 cents for an I-tunes song, I accept it for the transient characteristic the price implies. But when I pay $15+ for something, I want that "something" in my hand. Also, call me cynical, but you just know that if they force the issue by dropping disks and require downloading, their distribution cost will go down but the price of the product will not in proportion, so we get double screwed. Like Angus said, then they have you by the balls and can charge just for access to a product you've already paid for several times over.

Roger

Dare I say it: Hence 8-tracks...or CEDs...or records...or cassette tapes...or VHS,...or DVDs...or anything except for software driven media with time-to-die rights management. Not many people ohh and ahh over a directory listing of files...

[Termin8Anakin]

To say that downloads are the future is premature to say the LEAST.

There are so many things to consider if physical media was to ever go down the tube.

1) Like everyone has already said, the technology of today is not really up to the demands of the masses. Well, not unless you're willing to spend hundreds of thousands of dollars to put a flat-screen in every room of your house, install a sound system and the necessary portable media centers - among other things.

2) Again with the technology, ESPECIALLY here in Australia, our internet connections are simply NOT fast enough to deliver content on the level of broadcast HDTV or Blu-Ray. The capacity of a blu-ray disc is 50GB, but the majority of high speed internet users here have monthly download limits of under that. I myself have a limit of 36GB.
Only recently Kevin Rudd has 'promised' that at the end of the year the government will start delivering high-speed internet that is 40 times faster than present. Thing is, this roll out take place over the next five years.
Some third world countries RIGHT NOW have faster internet connections than us.....

3) That said....another thing is something called the 'Digital Divide'.
As technology advances at break neck pace, more and more people will be left behind. It affects those who don't have the capacity to learn and adapt to the technology, and it also affects those who simply cannot afford it. It's not just in third world countries that do not have the infrastructure, but it happens everywhere in the developed world.
Here in Australia, people in the digital divide are those described above but it also includes the people in the rural areas of the country, where the government hasn't even bothered to provide the people with a decent internet speed, let alone decent TV and phone services. Some people there are still on something similar to 28.8k modem speeds. It's absolutely shocking.

It all relates back to bickering companies like Microsoft and Apple who are the 'champions' of digital distribution, and then again to companies like Toshiba and Sony for creating another disc format when the previous one is still in its prime (in terms of the rush to improve technology and the 'digital divide', anyway).

Personally, I love my DVD collection. I'm proud of the money I've spent, I'm reminded of the DVDs I've been given as presents, and I love the box sets.
Box art and having a physical product to show for it is part of it.

I will upgrade to Blu-ray in the future (either if I get a player, or PS3) but I just can't see myself downloading movies and loving them in the same way.

[super8man]

The digital divide is a dead argument...its about as strong an argument as saying some children can't learn in school or some will never afford to drive...oh well....

Technology prices are no longer the wall they once were. Today, anyone who does not have a computer does not have one for other reasons - non-existent power availability, war torn countries, etc.

I don't have an arc welder but do not seem hampered by my ability to use things made from welded steel - so too with computers - if people are really that dislocated to even support a computer, I question the need for it in the first place. My parents don't need one but insist on paying for dial up service they have no idea how to use...I try to tell them to stop paying but sometimes its best to let them have their way...

Best of luck to you though...that sucks have a GB download capacity constraint..you guys need a free market to induce competition...

For many Americans, Netflix serves as a defacto download of digital movies - why buy the cow when you get the milk for free - once you see a movie once, you send it back and wait for another to arrive...that's about it generally. That's why music is so much better - we listen to it time and time again...not so with movies...even super 8 movies only get so much airplay...Netflix serves the need for some 20 movies a month for some friends I know and that's using the US Mail Service (notice even the mail serves those disenfranchised consumers)...

Cheers,
Mike

[Angus]

Thinking of America, I spent a couple of weeks in rural Arkansas and Missouri last November.....not possible to get a faster connection speed than 26.4k there. No broadband (living in the woods with the hillbbillies) and phone lines liable to go down for days at a time.

Tell them they can't have their DVD's because Bill Gates says download is the future! They'll probably get the shotgun out...

[S8 Booster]

download via satellite dish, upload via 28.8 - no big deal - even in USA? ;)

btw - do you even thing these people have or even moved away from a VHS?

and to the other guy going for blu-ray ... better hurry ... they wont be available for long .... ;)

shoot.....

[Angus]

download via satellite dish, upload via 28.8 - no big deal - even in USA? ;)

btw - do you even thing these people have or even moved away from a VHS?

They have DVD in the forest. What they don't have is sanitation...

Just to please Tim I visited the first ever Wal-Mart (Rogers, Arkansas).

[Nigel]

Sorry to dig this up...

But this was an interesting read:
http://news.cnet.com/8301-13645_3-9991658-47.html

If audiofiles are finally giving up on CDs and physical media you know that the masses have too.

My 6000+ songs don't live on CD.

Bring on the Servers/Cloud.

Good Luck